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Patterson, C.W. (2017)

ANALYSIS OF SHOOTING PERFORMANCES AT THE 2016 EUROPEAN SOCCER CHAMPIONSHIP

Scientific analysis of performances during soccer tournaments are conducted consistently to track trends developing in the sport with an aim to assisting players, coaches, and management to maintain a high level of success. These analyses focus on a specific aspect of soccer performance, be it tactical, technical, physiological or psychological, with the majority based on trying to assess how goals are scored during the matches. Despite the popularity of studies focusing on goals scored, very few offer an insight into the shots attempted in goal scoring opportunities. The current study aims to investigate the shots attempted during matches played at the 2016 European Championships. Over 1,300 shots from the 51 televised games were analysed for a variety of measurements including when the shot was attempted, the source of possession leading to the shot, the shot’s outcome, and where on the pitch the shot originated from. A series of trends identified from previous tournament analyses were found to be continued through this tournament, albeit for shots attempted rather than goals scored. A variety of reasons, including the tournament’s unique structure, the influence of professionalism, technological and tactical advancements, have been proposed as to explain the study’s findings.

External feedback is critical to performance enhancement allowing for the identification of errors or weaknesses, and, in the modern sporting environment, external feedback is commonly expressed through analysis of recorded video footage, either of training sessions and/or matches (Czwalina, 1992; Lames, 1994; Singer & Willimczik, 2002; Carling et al., 2005; Liebermann & Franks, 2008; Michailidis et al., 2013a; Shafizadeh et al., 2013; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014). In addition to providing reviews of perfor4mance, the analysis can aid in planning strategies for future performances regardless of the upcoming opposition (Franks & Miller, 1991; Jones et al., 2004; Yiannakos & Armatas, 2006; Carling et al., 2009; Lago-Peňas et al., 2010; Njororai, 2013a). Initially, data was collated through notational analysis however the development of technology has seen a rise in the use and number of computerised software packages which offer a simple, user-friendly method for collating a large sample of recorded data that can be accessed and analysed quickly when required (Hohmann & Rommel, 1994; Hughes et al., 2002; Liebermann et al., 2002; Armatas et al., 2005; Hughes & Franks, 2005; Mitrotasio et al., 2006; Lago-Ballesteros & Lago-Peňas, 2010; Michailidis, 2014). Regardless of how the data is collated, performance analysis-based studies into soccer matches and tournament have become common place in scientific literature with a variety of technical, tactical, psychological and physiological variables coming under investigation (Ali, 1988; Jinshan et al., 1993; Weineck, 1997; Konstadinidou, 2001; Redwood-Brown et al., 2012; Mara et al., 2012;Di Salvo et al., 2013; Njororai, 2013b; Shafizadeh et al., 2013).

These tournament analyses and research studies aid in recording the evolution of the game of soccer throughout history, as well as outlying current trends in performance variables that correlate to success in matches which can be applied into tactical strategies of the players and coaches (Theis, 1992; Lottermann, 2000; Lago-Ballesteros & Lago-Peňas, 2010; LagoPeňas & Dellal, 2010; Delgado-Bordonau et al., 2013; Njororai, 2013; Lago-Peňas & GόmezLόpez, 2014). As soccer matches are decided by the number of goals scored, if any, during the match it therefore is logical to analyse the patterns and characteristics of the goals scored. Except for goals from isolated defensive errors without interaction from offensive players, shots on goal are the source for goals scoring in soccer matches as well as being a subjective, often anecdotal, assessment of a team’s performance.

Despite this and the need for accurate shooting by players during matches, very few studies have investigated the characteristics of shots attempted (Yuan, 2001; Gόmez et al., 2008; Wright et al., 2011; Castellano et al., 2012; Clemente et al., 2012; Barreira et al., 2013) with studies favouring the analysis of goals scored instead (Njororai, 2004; Wei, 2004; Yiannakos Armatas, 2006; Armatas et al., 2007; Gόmez et al., 2008; Armatas et al., 2009; Tenga et al., 2009; Armatas & Yiannakos, 2010; Wright et al., 2011; Mara et al., 2012; Alberti et al., 2013; Leite, 2013a; Leite, 2013b; Michailidis et al., 2013b; Njororai, 2013; Shafizadeh et al., 2013; Michailidis, 2014; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014; Njororai, 2014). In simplified terms, most goals are scored during the second half of matches (Yiannakos & Armatas, 2006; Armatas et al., 2009; Armatas & Yiannakos, 2010; Alberti et al., 2013; Leite, 2013a; Leite, 2013b; Michailidis et al., 2013a; Njororai, 2013; Michailidis, 2014; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014; Njororai, 2014) while a range of studies have identified goals scored during specific time periods, normally either 10 or 15 minutes long (Shang, 2002; Njororai, 2004; Wei, 2004; Armatas et al., 2007; Armatas et al., 2009; Tenga et al., 2009; Armatas & Yiannakos, 2010; Alberti et al., 2013; Leite, 2013a; Leite, 2013b; Michailidis et al., 2013a; Njororai, 2013; Michailidis, 2014; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014; Njororai, 2014). Unsurprisingly, most goals were scored by strikers, who are the most forward and offensive-orientated players on the pitch using the instep of the foot and from within the penalty area following a period of unorganised play, also known as “open play” (Njororai, 2004; Wei, 2004; Yiannakos & Armatas, 2006; Gόmez et al., 2008; Tenga et al., 2009; Armatas & Yiannakos, 2010; Wright et al., 2011; Mara et al., 2012; Leite, 2013b; Michailidis et al., 2013a; Michailidis et al., 2013; Njororai, 2013; Michailidis, 2014; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014). To provide further details to the analysis of offensive performances in soccer, the current study aims to investigate the characteristics of shots attempted during the 2016 UEFA European Championship (Euro 16) held in France. Through notational analysis, the study will investigate a series of characteristics such as when shots were attempted, the play immediately prior to the attempted shot, the games’ state, and from where the shot originated from.

All 51 games from Euro 16 were analysed through notational analysis from the recorded broadcasts of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and Independent Television (ITV) companies, uploaded onto their online catch-up services BBC iPlayer (British Broadcasting Corporation; London, UK) and ITVplayer (ITV plc; London, UK) , respectively. Each attempted shot at goal in every match was coded and collated into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel 2007; Microsoft Corporation; Redmond, Washington, USA) which was configured to collate data on when the shot was attempted, in regards to the game’s half and minutes played, the outcome of the shot (Table 1), the state of the game whether the shooting team was winning, losing or drawing the match, the source of possession preceding the shot (Table 2), and where on the pitch the shot was attempted from, identified through a zoned pitch map (Figure 1). The spreadsheet data was collated through pivot tables into separate data frames which were exported into RStuidio (RStudio version 0.98.976; RStudio; Boston, Massachusetts, USA) for analysis through a series of chi-square and Wiliconox non-parametric tests with a 95% confidence levels thus setting a p-value of 0.05 for identifying significant results.

Table 1. Definitions used for assessing the outcome of the shots attempted during the Euro 16 tournament

Table 2. Definitions used for the source of the shots attempted during the Euro 16 tournament

Figure 1. Zoned pitch map used to locate the position from which each shot was attempted. The differing colours represent the zones combined for processing and analysis

When comparing the outcome of the 1,387 shots attempted during the tournament, all comparisons between the individual outcomes, except for the comparison between total shots on-target and shots off target, showed a significant difference (p-value <0.01; Figure 2). Significantly more (p-value <0.01) shots were attempted during the second half of matches with the 1st 15-minute period of the 2nd half being when most shots were attempted (Figure 3). Within both the first and second halves, only the difference between the opening 15-minute period and the periods of injury time at the end of the half showed significant differences (p-value <0.01; Figure 3). When comparing the 15-minute periods of each half with one another, the 1st and 2nd of the 15-minute periods stated a significant difference between the 1st and 2nd halves of the mates in addition to the two periods of extra time played in 5 of the 15 knockout matches (Figure 3). The 3rd and 4th periods of the regulation halves reported a significant increase (p-value <0.01) in shots attempted in these periods from the 1st half to the 2nd (Figure 3).

Figure 2. Breakdown of the outcomes of shots attempted per game at Euro 16

Figure 3. Number of shots attempted per game between each half and 15-minute periods within each half

Throw-ins, corners, direct free-kicks, indirect free-kicks and penalties are frequently combined as “set pieces” and when all the set piece sources were combined into a single source there was an evident significant difference (p-value <0.01) between shots from set pieces and from open play (Figure 4). Individually, there were significant differences between corners and indirect free-kicks whereas shot originating from open play and throw-ins significantly differed (p-value <0.01) from all other potential sources (Figure 4). With regards to the game’s state, the average number of shots attempted per game was significantly higher (p-value <0.01) when the scores where level than when one team had a lead (Figure 5). Furthermore, there was a significant increase (p-value <0.05) between the average number of shots attempted in the knockout matches than those attempted during the group phase matches (Figure 6). There was a significant difference reported between the number of shots attempted within the penalty area and those attempted from outside the penalty area (Figure 7) with the 6-yard box and the penalty spot significantly different from all other locations apart from themselves (Figure 7). All the correlations assessed during the analysis reported significant relationships of various strengths, with only the correlations between number of games lost and the total number of shots, and between the games lost and the number of shots individually recorded as on-target and off-target stating an inversely significant correlation (p-value <0.01).

Figure 4. The sources of possession immediately preceding the shots attempted per game

Figure 5. The influence of game state on the number of shots attempted per game

Figure 6. Number of shots attempted per game in each phase of the tournament

Figure 7. Number of shots attempted in each grouped pitch zone per game

The current study aimed to investigate shooting performances of teams participating in the 2016 European soccer championships (Euro 16) held in France. The study’s indicates significant findings relating to the timing of shots attempted, the source of possession preceding the shot, the games’ state at the time of the attempted shot, and the outcome of the shot, as well as the tournament phase in which the game was played. Regarding shooting tendencies in previous tournaments, only a small base of evidence exists in comparison to the amount of studies investigating patterns of goals scored in soccer tournaments (Castellano et al., 2012; Njororai, 2013b; Michailidis et al., 2013; Goral 2015; Durlik & Bieniek, 2014; Leite, 2013; Lago-Peñas et al., 2010; Gomez et al., 2008; Delgado-Bordonau et al., 2013; Barreria et al., 2013).

During Euro 16 more shots were attempted when the scores were level than when one side was leading which counters the findings of Castellano et al., (2012), Goral (2015), and Lago-Peñas et al., (2010). Castellano et al., 2012 also offers contradictory evidence to the finding that there was a decline in both goals scored and shots attempted from set pieces as compared to previous tournaments. Meanwhile the trend from previous tournaments for set pieces to be a key source for shots attempted and goals scored was continued during Euro 16 (Njororai, 2013b; Durlik & Bieniek, 2014). A pair of studies found that the outcomes of the attempted shots echoed the findings of the current study (Delgado-Bordonau et al., 2013; Barreria et al., 2013) while Gomez et al. (2008) found that analysis of the 2007 Women’s World Cup stated that on-target was the most common outcome.

If shots attempted reflects goals scored during soccer tournaments, then the findings of more shots attempted in the knockout phase than the group stage supports the findings of Goral (2015). Goral (2015) investigation also confirmed the significant findings regarding the timing of shots attempted, in conjunction with Michailidis et al. (2013)and Leite (2013). The data presented in goal scoring patterns from these previous competitions, could provide some support for more shots coming from open play than other sources, despite being countered by Njororai, (2013b), while shots being attempted from a range of differing locations around the offensive half of the field (Michailidis et al., 2013; Durlik & Bieniek, 2014; Mitrotasios & Armatas, 2014; Njororai, 2013; Yiannakos & Armatas, 2006; Michailidis, 2014; Gomez et al., 2008; Wright et al., 2011; Aramatas & Yiannakos, 2010; Leite, 2013b).

The state of the game can have a significant influence on the number of shots attempted at the latter stages of a game with a team losing the match is more likely to be attacking more in a desperation to score the equalising goal which can leave them susceptible to a counterattack from their opponents that can lead to them having the shot on goal. Such developments could offer some explanation to the slight increase in the number of shots attempted by the team trailing which, in theory, is supported by the findings of Redwood-Brown (2008), Lago-Peňas & Dellal (2010), and Redwood-Brown et al. (2012), studies that have investigated the effect of the score line on physiological work rates,, passing frequencies and ball possession statistics, respectively. Both Redwood-Brown (2008) and Lagos-Peňas & Gómez-López (2014) stated increases in ball possession from sides in a losing position with Lago-Peňas & Gómez-López (2014) also stating that the number of entries into the attacking third of the pitch increased as indicating a potential for attacking sides to resort to more defensive, counterattacking strategies. The findings of an increased work rate (Redwood-Brown et al., 2012), namely noted as time spent running or sprinting, of attacking forwards has offered another aspect to the discussion as a team settles into a more defensive approach, there is more space for the attacking players to cover to create shooting opportunities while attempting to prevent counter-attacks. Whether indicating that possession, work rate, final third entries or shots on goal increase for the winning or losing sides, the change in tactics and style of play have been attributed as a hypothetical reasoning for the seen findings.

Changes in playing tactics may be combined with substitutions in attempt to play these altered strategies, to counter the effects of fatigue on those who started the game, or to replace those players at risk of being sent-off or injured. The replacement of defensive players, in favour of attacking ones to overload the opposition defence creating more shooting opportunities to level of win the game would result in the increased number of shots attempted in the latter stages of the second half as well as the slight increase in shots attempted by sides losing the game. Although without further research investigating the influences of substitutions and tactical adaptions, such hypotheses are hypothetical, requiring the further research to assess the validity of the proposed reasoning behind their influences on soccer performances.

The structure of the tournament could also be proposed as an impacting factor on the findings of the current study. Euro 16 employed a unique approach by expanding the number of teams competing in the tournament from 16 to 24 and included a new round of fixtures to the knockout stage which meant that teams finishing third in their pool could still qualify for the knockout stages thus rather than winning being a necessity during the pool stage, it was avoiding defeat that was the prime objective even if it meant drawing a game. This may lead to teams being less adventurous in case of risking conceding goals on the counterattack thus the findings of the study stating the significantly fewer number of shots attempted in group phase matches compared to the matches played during the knockout phases. Similarly, to other major soccer tournaments with a knockout phase, all matches in the knockout phase that are level at the end of the regulation 90 minutes enter a phase of extra time, two halves of 15 minutes, with a penalty shootout to follow should the extra time periods fail to separate the sides on the scoreboard. The threat of an extended game or the “lottery” of a penalty shootout may encourage a trailing or drawing side to change playing personnel or tactics, attack more, to attempt more shots on goal, and to potentially leave them more vulnerable to the counter-attack from the opposition as the game nears its completion. The use of extra time periods and its associated fatigue could provide the support in the findings and interpretations from the Redwood-Brown (2008), Lago-Peňas & Dellal (2010), Redwood-Brown et al. (2012), and Lagos-Peňas & Gómez-López (2014) investigations into how the score line can influence technical, tactical and physiological performances.

In conclusion, the 2016 European Championships have followed a similar pattern to previous tournament in that there was an increase in the number of attempted shots between the 1st and 2nd halves of the games. The tournament echoed the previous tournaments with most shots originating from open play and from within the penalty area, as well as reporting more shots off target than any other outcome used in assessing the effectiveness of attempted shots. Various reasons have been proposed as theoretical explanations to why the results have consistently been reported throughout this tournament and those that have preceded it

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The author would like to express their gratitude to both the BBC and ITV television networks for broadcasting the matches from the tournament live as well as making all 51 matches available on their own “on-demand catch-up” services. In addition, the author would like to thank the organisers of Euro 16 for the organisation and presentation of the tournament, particularly the maintenance of the tournament website which offered a measure of accuracy of the researcher’s data collection procedure. Finally, the author would like to express they’re thanks to Robyn Hewat and the Sports and Exercise Science department at Edinburgh Napier University, namely Pete Laird, for their assistance in the completion of a pilot study using a sample of 10 club matches in the 2009-2010 Premier League and UEFA Champions League competitions.